Seattle StormvChicago Sky

The matchup

The Seattle Storm enter this matchup with a dismal record of 2 wins and 16 losses over 18 games, averaging 86.4 points for and conceding 91.6 points. Recent form highlights a troubling trend: they have lost their last four games, including a narrow 82-84 defeat to the Portland Fire just a day before this upcoming game. Their only recent win was a 97-88 victory against the Chicago Sky on August 11, which will be fresh in both teams' minds.

On the other hand, the Chicago Sky holds a record of 7 wins and 11 losses, averaging 91.4 points for while allowing 92.4. Their last five games have shown inconsistency, as they lost their latest match 71-91 against the Golden State Valkyries and also fell to the Storm 88-97 earlier in August. However, they managed to beat the Los Angeles Sparks 95-88 on August 6, indicating that they can perform well offensively, despite a defensive vulnerability in recent contests. This season, the head-to-head matchups are split, with the Storm winning one of the two games played.

Does the price match the form?

The current market prices reflect $2.18 for the Seattle Storm, which gives them an implied probability of 45.9%. The Chicago Sky are priced at $1.79, corresponding to an implied probability of 55.9%. Together, these figures yield a market total of 101.7%, indicating a bookmaker margin of 1.7% over 100%.

Considering Chicago's superior record and the last-game outcome with the Storm, the odds suggest a greater probability of a Sky win. However, Seattle’s recent home win against Chicago may call for further investigation: does the Storm's past success against the Sky warrant a closer look into the disparity in implied probabilities, especially against their current form?

Where to look in the markets

• Moneyline (head-to-head): The prices suggest a competitive balance, particularly after Seattle's recent defeat of Chicago. An evaluation of performance trends is essential.
• Total points over/under: The combined scoring average of both teams sits around 178 total points, so checking the posted line against this average could provide valuable insights into the totals market.
• Point spread: Given the recent score margins, especially in their last matchup, it's prudent to consider how the current form affects the point spread offers.

Before you bet, check

• What is the status of any injuries affecting key players on either team?
• What does the travel schedule look like for both teams ahead of this matchup?
• Have there been any recent changes to team line-ups that may affect performance?
• Is there any weather condition that could impact the game's play if it's outdoors?

Staking this game

The shortest price in the market is $1.79, necessitating a 56% strike rate just to break even. Implementing a flat staking approach of 1-2% will aid in enduring potential losing runs that can occur even with seemingly strong favourites.