SOCCER_INTL · Football
ChelseavTottenham Hotspur
Best-of-market odds · market total 100.3% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
Writing a quick retrospective on how the market read this one…
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
Chelsea come into this match with a solid record of 4 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw from 7 matches this season, giving them an average of 2.4 points for and 1.9 against. They recently achieved a convincing 5-1 victory against Bournemouth at home, highlighting their attacking prowess. However, their campaign has not been without setbacks, including a 0-3 loss to Brentford and a narrow defeat to Arsenal (1-2). This trend of alternating between high-scoring wins and unexpected losses could signal inconsistency in their overall performance.
On the other side, Tottenham Hotspur's performance has been less impressive, with only 1 win, 3 losses, and 3 draws from 7 matches, yielding an average of just 0.9 points for and 1.4 against. Their solitary win came against Coventry City (3-1) in a match that showcased some attacking potential, but their overall trend includes three draws, including a couple of scoreless results (0-0 against Everton and Nottingham Forest). This points to a struggle to convert chances and secure wins, potentially putting them at a disadvantage against a more robust Chelsea side.
Does the price match the form?
The current market offers the following implied probabilities: Chelsea at $1.89 (52.9% implied), Tottenham Hotspur at $4.20 (23.8% implied), and a draw also at $4.20 (23.8% implied). The total market stands at 100.5%, illustrating a slight bookmaker margin.
Considering Chelsea's stronger record and recent form, the market's favouring of Chelsea at 52.9% seems to align reasonably with their performance metrics. However, one might question whether Tottenham's recent form, with a low scoring average and only one win in seven matches, merits their implied win probability of 23.8%. This raises a point for further investigation: can Tottenham improve against a Chelsea team that has shown both strengths and vulnerabilities in defence?
Where to look in the markets
Given the data, three specific markets warrant attention:
- Head-to-Head: Chelsea's recent impressive form and Tottenham's struggles could indicate value in the direct match outcome market.
- Totals Over/Under: With a combined scoring average approaching three total points per match from both teams, it would be prudent to compare this average against the bookmaker's posted line to assess the potential for goals.
- Draw No Bet: Tottenham’s difficulties in securing wins this season, alongside Chelsea's inconsistency, might lead to exploring the draw no bet market as a safeguard, especially if the odds provide value.
Before you bet, check
- What does Chelsea’s latest squad look like, and are there any injuries affecting key players?
- Are there any travel-related issues for Tottenham Hotspur ahead of this away game?
- What are the weather conditions expected on the day of the match, especially if played outdoors?
- How has the recent fixture schedule affected the players’ physical condition on both teams?
- Have there been any last-minute changes in the starting eleven or significant tactical shifts from either side?
Staking this game
The shortest price in the market is $1.89, which requires a 53% strike rate just to break even. Given the volatility inherent in match outcomes, maintaining a 1-2% flat staking strategy can help endure potential losing runs, particularly when betting on teams like Chelsea, who can be inconsistent despite their current form.