Levi RodriguesvLiu Ce

The matchup

Levi Rodrigues enters this matchup with a record of 0 wins and 1 loss in the 2026 season, having conceded an average of 1.0 points per match without scoring any himself. His most recent fight resulted in a 0-1 defeat against Felipe Franco on July 18, 2026. The absence of any offensive output in that fight contributes to a concerning trend for Rodrigues, raising questions about his ability to compete effectively in the UFC arena.

In contrast, his opponent, Liu Ce, enjoys a strong implied probability of 65.8% based on the current odds. While specific recent performance data for Liu Ce isn't provided, the odds suggest a significant expectation of success in this matchup. The stark discrepancy in Rodrigues’ scoring average and his inability to secure any points raises a red flag about his competitiveness against Liu Ce, who is currently the favourite.

Does the price match the form?

The current market presents Levi Rodrigues at $2.55 with an implied probability of 39.2%, and Liu Ce at $1.52 with an implied probability of 65.8%. The total market probability of 105.0% reflects the combined bookmaker margin. Given Rodrigues' lack of offensive performance and a sole defeat, does the 39.2% chance attributed to him align with the evidence of his recent form? With Rodrigues unable to score in his last bout, it’s worth considering whether the bookmakers have accurately assessed his chances against Liu Ce.

Where to look in the markets

• Moneyline: Examining the moneyline bet on Rodrigues and Ce is essential given Rodrigues' current form. His scoring average of 0.0 means he has demonstrated no ability to secure points in fights, which may impact the overall assessment of his chances.
• Method of victory: The method of victory market could prove informative, especially if either fighter has a history of winning through KO/TKO or submission. Given Rodrigues' recent scoreless performance, exploring how Liu Ce typically secures victories might reveal insights into this match.
• Fight to go the distance: With Rodrigues averaging 0.0 points and having not shown any scoring ability, assessing this market can indicate if the bout is expected to conclude early, differing between potential outcomes for both fighters.

Before you bet, check

• Have both fighters confirmed their participation, and are there any last-minute injuries affecting their performance?
• What is the defined travel schedule for Liu Ce, and how might it impact his performance?
• Are there any significant changes in training camps or fight preparations due to recent events?
• What are the expected weather conditions at the venue that could affect the bout?
• Has there been any update on the official fight card that might influence fighter readiness?

Staking this game

The lowest price in the current market for Liu Ce is $1.52, necessitating a strike rate of 66% just to break even. Given this high threshold, employing a 1-2% flat staking strategy protects against the inherent volatility and frequent losing streaks associated with betting on competitive fights.