BASEBALL · MLB
St. Louis CardinalsvMilwaukee Brewers
Best-of-market odds · combined margin ~1.5%. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
Writing a quick retrospective on how the market read this one…
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
The St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers both enter this match with identical records of 5 wins and 0 losses in their last five games. However, their scoring averages reveal contrasting offensive capabilities. The Cardinals have been particularly dominant, averaging 9.8 points per game while allowing just 2.2 points against. Their recent results illustrate this offensive prowess, highlighted by back-to-back blowouts against the Chicago Cubs, winning 17-1 on July 5 and July 3. Additionally, they have consistently defeated the Atlanta Braves 5-3, reflecting a strong form.
On the other hand, the Brewers average 5.8 points scored and 3.4 points allowed. Their recent victories over the Arizona Diamondbacks (7-4) on July 5 and July 4 and a series win against the Cincinnati Reds (5-3) indicate a solid start to the season, yet they are notably less explosive than the Cardinals. The disparity in offensive output and the nature of their recent games suggest the Cardinals have the upper hand in this matchup.
Does the price match the form?
The market currently prices the St. Louis Cardinals at $2.06 with an implied probability of 48.5% and the Milwaukee Brewers at $1.89 with an implied probability of 52.9%. The total market probability is 101.5%, indicating a slight bookmaker margin. Given the records and scoring averages, the Brewers are favoured despite the Cardinals' significantly higher scoring average and recent performances, especially their remarkable 17-1 victories. Does the market appropriately reflect the Cardinals’ superior form, or is there a potential mismatch that warrants further investigation?
Where to look in the markets
Considering the data provided, the total points market is worth examining due to the combined scoring average of around 16 total points if both teams perform to their season numbers. If the bookmakers’ posted line significantly deviates from this average, it would be a key point of analysis. Additionally, the head-to-head market should be scrutinized closely due to the Cardinals' dominant scoring averages, which could suggest more value exists in betting against the spread. Player props related to scoring could also be relevant, given the Cardinals' recent scoring surge, but without specific player data, caution is advised.
Before you bet, check
- What are the current injuries affecting team rosters?
- Is there any adverse weather forecast that may impact an outdoor venue?
- Have there been any travel issues or turnaround concerns for the away team?
- What are the latest team list selections for both sides?
Staking this game
With the lowest price in the market at $1.89, it requires a 53% strike rate just to break even. A disciplined staking strategy of 1-2% flat staking can help manage the variance present in such tightly contested matchups, allowing for sustainable betting even in the face of several losses.