New York Mets v Los Angeles Dodgers betting strategy

The matchup

The New York Mets enter this matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers with a dismal record of 2 wins and 14 losses over their last 16 games. Their offensive output has been relatively low, averaging just 4.3 runs per game while allowing an average of 7.0 runs against. Their recent form has been especially poor, suffering a four-game losing streak against the Milwaukee Brewers, with each game ending in a 3-8 finish in favor of the Brewers. Prior to this streak, they managed a single victory against the Philadelphia Phillies with a score of 4-1, but their overall consistency has been called into question.

Contrastingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers are performing slightly better with a record of 8 wins and 5 losses from their last 13 games. Their offensive capabilities are stronger, averaging 6.2 runs per game while conceding 6.3 runs. They recently faced the Philadelphia Phillies as well, completing a two-game set where they lost both matches by scores of 7-10, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Despite the losses, they did secure back-to-back victories against the New York Yankees with tight scorelines of 2-1, showcasing their ability to hold defensively when required. Notably, the Dodgers have had more success overall and possess a stronger scoring average, making for an interesting contrast against the struggling Mets.

Does the price match the form?

The current best-of-market odds assign the New York Mets a price of $2.30, which gives them an implied probability of 43.5%. In comparison, the Los Angeles Dodgers are priced at $1.73, equating to an implied probability of 57.8%. The combined market total stands at 101.3%, indicating a modest bookmaker margin.

Evaluating these odds against the recent performance of both teams reveals some tension worth investigating. The Mets' abysmal form and staggering recent losses contrast sharply with the Dodgers' relatively better performance. Specifically, with the Mets posting only 2 wins over their last 16 games, is the market giving them too much credit at a 43.5% implied probability? Alternatively, do the Dodgers deserve the 57.8% given their inconsistent scoring, particularly in their recent games against the Phillies?

Where to look in the markets

Totals Over/Under: The combined scoring average from both teams indicates around 10 total points per game. This figure should be compared against the posted line from the bookmakers to assess the potential for an over or under bet.
Head-to-Head: Given the trends in both teams’ form, particularly the Mets' struggles, examining the head-to-head market becomes crucial, especially considering the Dodgers' recent form against teams like the Yankees.
Margin Markets: The Mets' defensive struggles, as evidenced by their high average of 7.0 runs against, may suggest value in margin betting, particularly if the Dodgers can exploit these vulnerabilities.

Before you bet, check

What is the current injury status for key players on both teams?
What are the weather conditions expected for the game, and could they affect gameplay?
Are there any notable travel issues or schedule fatigue for either team?
Have the lineups been confirmed, and are all key players expected to start?

Staking this game

With the shortest price in the market sitting at $1.73, you would need a strike rate of 58% just to break even. Implementing a staking strategy of 1-2% flat staking can help withstand the inevitable losing runs, even when betting on the perceived stronger side in such matchups.