BASEBALL · MLB
St. Louis CardinalsvChicago Cubs
Best-of-market odds · market total 100.4% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
Writing a quick retrospective on how the market read this one…
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs are both sitting at equal records of 9 wins and 10 losses out of their first 19 games in the 2026 season. The Cardinals have been scoring an average of 4.8 runs per game while allowing 3.6 runs against, indicating a relatively solid performance on the pitch. However, recent form has been less than favorable for them, with a streak of five consecutive losses, the latest of which was against the Cubs on July 28, where they fell 3-7 at home. To compound matters, they also suffered defeats to the Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks during this stretch, highlighting a concerning trend of defensive vulnerabilities.
On the other hand, the Chicago Cubs are averaging 3.2 runs for and 5.2 against, suggesting they are struggling defensively as well. However, their recent form has been more favorable, having won their last four games against the Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Notably, their last encounter on July 28 saw them convincingly defeat the Cardinals 7-3. In terms of season matchups, the Cardinals have historically fared better against the Cubs, with a decisive 17-1 victory earlier in July, indicating that there's a significant variation in their head-to-head results this season.
Does the price match the form?
The current market presents the following implied probabilities: St. Louis Cardinals at $2.08, which translates to an implied probability of 48.1%, and Chicago Cubs at $1.91, translating to an implied probability of 52.4%. The total market probability stands at 100.4%. When we compare the Cubs' odds against their recent record, especially their win over the Cardinals, the market seems aligned with their current form. However, the Cardinals' prior victories against the Cubs earlier in the month raises questions as to whether their current odds accurately reflect their potential to upset. Is the market undervaluing the Cardinals' capability to leverage home-field advantage and bounce back from a poor run?
Where to look in the markets
Given the recent scoring averages, the totals over/under market is worth exploring. The combined scoring average from both teams stands at around 8 total points, which may prompt a closer look at bookmaker lines for overs. Additionally, the defensive challenges for both teams suggest examining run lines or margins, particularly given the Cubs have allowed an average of 5.2 runs. Given the Cardinals’ offensive power evidenced in their past victories against the Cubs, the head-to-head market could also be revealing, especially considering the Cardinals’ historical dominance in some matchups.
Before you bet, check
- What is the latest team list for both the Cardinals and Cubs on game day?
- Are there any significant injuries affecting either team's lineup?
- What are the weather conditions expected to be like, particularly if the game is outdoors?
- How have both teams traveled, considering the distance and turnaround time from recent games?
Staking this game
With the shortest price in the market set at $1.91, this requires a 52% strike rate just to break even. Applying a disciplined approach with 1-2% flat staking can help manage the losing runs that can occur, even with teams that are perceived as strong contenders.