St. Louis CardinalsvPhiladelphia Phillies

The matchup

The St. Louis Cardinals enter this matchup with a record of 13 wins and 15 losses from 28 games, averaging 4.8 points for and 3.9 against. Their recent form has shown some promise, as they swept a two-game series against the Colorado Rockies, winning both games by a narrow margin of 3-2. Prior to those victories, they had a strong showing against the New York Yankees, where they not only won both encounters but did so with a combined score of 26-14. However, their earlier loss to the Toronto Blue Jays underscores that consistency can be an issue, especially when it comes to defensive efforts.

The Philadelphia Phillies, on the other hand, have a slightly less favourable record at 13 wins and 18 losses from 31 games, with an average scoring of 4.6 runs and an equal average of 4.6 runs against. Their last five games reveal a troubling trend, as they've lost their last three contests, all to the Toronto Blue Jays, with close results of 4-5 in two consecutive games. The one bright spot in their recent performance was a three-game sweep against the Washington Nationals, where they managed to shut them out and win convincingly with scores of 5-0 and 6-3. This inconsistency in form could be a concern going into this matchup.

Does the price match the form?

The current market provides the following implied probabilities: St. Louis Cardinals at $1.95, which translates to a 51.3% implied probability, and Philadelphia Phillies at $2.02, or 49.5% implied probability. Collectively, the market total stands at 100.8%, indicating a combined bookmaker margin of 0.8%.

When evaluating the Cardinals, their recent scoring averages and positive results against teams like the Yankees suggest that the market's view of their chances at just above 51% may be somewhat justified. However, should we consider the last five games of the Phillies, their poor performance against a common opponent, the Blue Jays, raises questions about whether they truly possess a near 50% chance of success. Does this gap in recent form between the two teams indicate that the market may not fully account for the impending disadvantage faced by the Phillies?

Where to look in the markets

• Totals over/under: With a combined scoring average of about 9 total points from both teams, it's essential to compare this figure against the bookmaker's posted line. If the line is set significantly lower, it may provide a valuable opportunity.
• Head-to-head: Given the Cardinals' recent ability to win close matches and the Phillies’ struggle in tight games, analysing the head-to-head market could yield insightful results.
• Margin markets: The Cardinals have shown they can win visually impressive games, while the Phillies struggle to close out matches. Assessing whether margin markets reflect this disparity could present an edge.

Before you bet, check

• What is the team list for both the Cardinals and Phillies for this matchup?
• Are there any significant injuries affecting either team prior to the game?
• What are the weather conditions expected for the game's outdoor venue?
• What are the travel arrangements for the Phillies following their recent set of games?
• Is there a short turnaround for either team that might impact their performance?

Staking this game

With the shortest price in the market at $1.95, a bettor would need a strike rate of 51% just to break even. Employing a disciplined approach with a flat staking plan of 1-2% of your bankroll can help navigate through the inevitable losing streaks that even the strongest favourites often encounter.