Milwaukee Brewers v New York Mets betting strategy

The matchup

The Milwaukee Brewers enter this matchup with a strong record of 12 wins and 2 losses from their last 14 games, consistently averaging 4.5 points per game while allowing just 3.3 points on average against them. Notably, they are currently riding a three-game home winning streak against the Miami Marlins, winning each game by the same score of 2-1. However, it is worth mentioning that they experienced two back-to-back losses against the Pittsburgh Pirates, both games ending in a close 6-7 scoreline.

On the other side, the New York Mets are struggling with a dismal record of 2 wins and 11 losses in their last 13 games, averaging 4.5 points for and a concerning 6.8 points against. Their most recent five games include a resounding deterioration, losing to the Philadelphia Phillies 1-6 and suffering two losses to the Boston Red Sox, each by a score of 2-6. The contrast between the Brewers' recent form and the Mets’ struggles suggests a significant disparity in competitive form heading into this game.

Does the price match the form?

The current best-of-market odds offer the Milwaukee Brewers at $1.55, reflecting a 64.5% implied probability of winning, while the New York Mets are priced at $2.65, equating to a 37.7% implied probability. The market total is at 102.3%, indicating the combined bookmaker margin above a perfectly balanced market.

The Brewers' implied probability is well-aligned with their recent performances and impressive winning streaks, particularly at home. Conversely, the Mets' low implied probability raises questions regarding their current slump and form inconsistencies. Is the market accurately reflecting the significance of the Brewers' strong home form and the Mets’ recent scoring woes? Further investigation could be warranted.

Where to look in the markets

Head-to-Head: Given the Brewers' strong home record and the Mets' recent struggles, examining the head-to-head market appears prudent, particularly if past outcomes against similar opponents can provide insights.
Totals Over/Under: With a combined scoring average of about 9 points if both teams hit their season numbers, it will be essential to compare this figure to the bookmaker's posted line for a potential edge.
Margin Markets: The Brewers’ low average against (3.3 points) suggests that they can control a game defensively, indicating exploration of win margins might be a worthwhile avenue.

Before you bet, check

What is the latest team list and who is confirmed to play on each side?
Are there any recent injuries affecting either team’s lineup?
What are the weather conditions expected at the venue for this outdoor matchup?
How does the travel schedule factor into the teams' upcoming performances?
Are there any recent trends in player performances that could influence the game's outcome?

Staking this game

The shortest price in the market for the Brewers is $1.55, which necessitates a 65% strike rate just to break even. Practicing 1-2% flat staking will help manage the volatility of results, even for a strong favourite like the Brewers.