BASEBALL · MLB
St. Louis CardinalsvArizona Diamondbacks
Best-of-market odds · combined margin ~0.7%. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
How it played out
In the matchup, the Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the St. Louis Cardinals with a final score of 10-6, marking a clear upset against the pre-game market which favored the Cardinals with an implied probability of ~53%.
How our pre-game read held up
The pre-game analysis suggested that the Cardinals had the edge, based on their better season performance and prior head-to-head success against the Diamondbacks. However, the Diamondbacks' victory indicates that the analysis did not hold up as expected, with Arizona outperforming their recent struggles and the pre-game odds.
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
The St. Louis Cardinals and Arizona Diamondbacks will face off with the Cardinals holding a slightly better season record of 9 wins and 6 losses compared to the Diamondbacks' 8 wins and 7 losses from their 15 games each. St. Louis has averaged 5.3 points per game while allowing 2.9, indicating a stronger defensive performance overall. In the last five games, the Cardinals have had a challenging run, losing their most recent two matches against the Los Angeles Angels by identical scores of 2-3 after winning their previous three against Arizona with the same score of 5-4 on July 18 and 19.
On the other hand, Arizona has struggled recently, losing four consecutive games, including two close encounters against St. Louis. Their scoring averages reflect a similar trend, as they have averaged 5.2 points for and 3.7 against in the season. The head-to-head results this season indicate a competitive edge for the Cardinals, having won both games against the Diamondbacks by a single run, suggesting close matchups that could potentially play a crucial role in their next meeting.
Does the price match the form?
The current best decimal odds are St. Louis Cardinals at $1.90 (52.6% implied probability) and Arizona Diamondbacks at $2.08 (48.1% implied probability), with a combined market total of 100.7%. This slight edge for the Cardinals is somewhat supported by their recent performances, particularly their head-to-head success against Arizona.
However, examining the Cardinals' form against the Diamondbacks, there may be a question regarding whether the market accurately reflects the close nature of their previous encounters. Given that both previous games were decided by one run, and considering the Cardinals have lost their last two games, is the market's implied probability a fair representation of the competitive rivalry between these teams?
Where to look in the markets
For this matchup, the head-to-head market seems particularly relevant given the recent tight finishing of their games, indicating that stellar performances from both sides could lead to another close game. Observers should also closely monitor the totals over/under market, as the combined scoring average from both teams stands at about 10 points, warranting a comparison against the posted line to identify potential value. Furthermore, given the solid scoring averages of both teams, player performance props may be worth exploring, especially for individuals capable of impacting the high-scoring nature of their games.
Before you bet, check
- What is the injury status of key players for both teams?
- What are the weather conditions expected for this game, especially if it's an outdoor venue?
- How have the teams travelled and adapted after their recent games?
- What is the starting line-up for both teams on game day?
- Verify the recent form of pitchers scheduled to start in this matchup.
Staking this game
The shortest price available in the market is $1.90, necessitating a 53% strike rate just to break even. Adopting a disciplined approach with 1-2% flat staking can effectively manage the inevitable losing streaks that even reliable teams experience, preserving your bankroll for future opportunities.