BASEBALL · MLB
New York YankeesvSt. Louis Cardinals
Best-of-market odds · market total 100.1% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
How it played out
The game resulted in a St. Louis Cardinals victory, defeating the New York Yankees 13 to 7. This outcome marked an upset compared to the pre-game market expectations, where the Yankees were favoured at $1.53 (implying a ~65% chance of winning).
How our pre-game read held up
The pre-game analysis highlighted the Yankees' strong performance and recent winning streak, suggesting they would likely prevail. However, the Cardinals' significant offensive output and the Yankees' inability to match the score indicated that the pre-game read did not hold up against the final result.
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
The New York Yankees enter this matchup with an impressive record of 20 wins and just 5 losses over their last 25 games, demonstrating a commanding performance with an average of 4.2 points scored per game while allowing only 2.6 points against. Notably, they are riding a strong streak, having swept the Chicago Cubs in their last three games, all ending with identical scores of 2-0, underscoring their recent dominance on both offense and defense.
In contrast, the St. Louis Cardinals are struggling, with a record of 9 wins against 15 losses in 24 games. They have matched the Yankees' scoring average of 4.2 runs per game but have allowed significantly more at 3.8 runs against. Their recent form has been concerning, losing their last five games, all by a score of 1-3 to the Toronto Blue Jays and 3-7 to the Chicago Cubs. This raises questions about the Cardinals' ability to compete, particularly given their recent defensive breakdowns and lack of offensive firepower.
Does the price match the form?
The current market prices reflect the probabilities as follows: New York Yankees at $1.53, which translates to a 65.4% implied probability, and St. Louis Cardinals at $2.88, with an implied probability of 34.7%. The combined market total is 100.1%, indicating a very tight pricing strategy that suggests bookmakers are confident in the Yankees' likelihood of winning.
When evaluating the Yankees' strong recent results, there appears to be alignment with the market's view, reflecting their robust form and home advantage. However, the Cardinals’ prolonged losing streak raises questions about their ability to bounce back. Is the market accurately accounting for St. Louis’s struggles, or is there potential value in their ability to rectify their recent performances?
Where to look in the markets
Considering this matchup, the following markets become especially relevant:
- Totals Over/Under: With a combined scoring average of about 8 total points if both teams hit their season averages, it's crucial to compare this against the posted line to gauge potential value.
- Head-to-Head: The Yankees’ recent form and the Cardinals' struggles make the head-to-head market particularly interesting. Betting on the Yankees might reflect safer odds given their current trajectory.
Before you bet, check
- What is the expected weather forecast for the venue on game day?
- Are there any late injuries or changes to the team lineup that could impact performance?
- How has the travel schedule affected the Cardinals prior to this game?
- Is there any additional competitive context, such as upcoming series or player rest days?
Staking this game
Given that the shortest market price is $1.53, this price necessitates a 65% strike rate just to break even. Appropriately, 1-2% flat staking can be a prudent strategy to mitigate the risk during inevitable losing runs, even with strong favourites like the Yankees.