St. Louis Cardinals v Colorado Rockies betting strategy

The matchup

The St. Louis Cardinals enter this matchup with a record of 12 wins and 15 losses from 27 games, scoring an average of 4.8 points while allowing 4.0 points against. In their last five games, they managed to secure victories against the Colorado Rockies and New York Yankees, but also suffered defeats against the Toronto Blue Jays. Notably, they recently beat the Rockies 3-2 at home on August 8, which adds a psychological edge going into this next encounter.

Conversely, the Colorado Rockies are struggling with a 7-17 record from 24 games, averaging 5.7 points for and 6.5 points against. Their recent results show a troubling trend; they lost the last game against the Cardinals and dropped their previous two matchups against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rockies managed to secure a couple of wins against the Kansas City Royals earlier in August, but those victories appear overshadowed by their current losing streak. This season, the Cardinals have won three of their five meetings against the Rockies, indicating a slight advantage in their head-to-head encounters.

Does the price match the form?

The current best-of-market odds show the following implied probabilities: St. Louis Cardinals at $1.62 (61.7% implied) and Colorado Rockies at $2.40 (41.7% implied), resulting in a combined market total of 103.4%. This figure indicates a 3.4% bookmaker margin. When analyzing the Cardinals’ recent form, their 12-15 record and recent victories align with the market's 61.7% implied probability. However, the Rockies' current form, with a 7-17 record and recent losses, calls into question whether their 41.7% implied probability is justified given their struggles.

This discrepancy prompts further examination: Are the Rockies capable of bouncing back after a recent string of poor performances, or is the market underestimating the toll of their losing streak on their overall play? Such questions could enhance the analytical perspective ahead of this matchup.

Where to look in the markets

Head-to-head betting: With the Cardinals defeating the Rockies in three of their last five meetings, assessing the head-to-head odds could prove insightful.
Totals over/under: Given that the combined scoring average of 10 points is significantly high, evaluating the bookmaker's posted line against this figure could offer valuable insights.
Run line/margin markets: Considering the Cardinals have had both high-scoring wins and close games recently, examining the line markets could help gauge the bookmakers' expectations for this matchup.

Before you bet, check

What is the latest team news, including injuries and player availability for both teams?
What are the weather conditions expected for the venue on game day?
How have the teams managed travel and turnaround, especially considering recent games?
Are there any unique twists in the competition rules or specifics affecting this game?

Staking this game

With the shortest price in the market at $1.62, which necessitates a strike rate of 62% just to break even, maintaining disciplined staking strategies is crucial. Consider a flat staking approach of 1-2% of your bankroll to navigate the inevitable losing runs, even when backing stronger favourites like the Cardinals.