BASEBALL · MLB
Los Angeles DodgersvArizona Diamondbacks
Best-of-market odds · combined margin ~0.9%. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
How it played out
The Arizona Diamondbacks secured a decisive 9-3 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers, resulting in an upset against the pre-game market odds that favored the Dodgers at approximately 68% implied probability.
How our pre-game read held up
The pre-game analysis effectively highlighted the recent performances of both teams, noting the Diamondbacks' strong defensive and offensive play. This perspective was validated by the outcome, as the Diamondbacks not only repeated their previous success against the Dodgers but also showcased their improved form.
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
In this matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers enter with a record of 6 wins and 2 losses over the last eight games, averaging 7.4 points scored and 6.4 points conceded per game. Notably, their last five games reveal a mixed performance, consistently securing victories over the Colorado Rockies but succumbing to the Arizona Diamondbacks in their most recent face-off with a 3-9 defeat at home. This appears particularly significant given the consecutive wins of 8-7 against the Rockies and a more dominant win against the San Diego Padres prior to that.
In contrast, the Arizona Diamondbacks have recorded 7 wins and 3 losses in their last ten games, averaging 5.7 points scored while allowing only 3.3 points against. Their recent form is striking, especially with the recent victory over the Dodgers, showcasing a strong defensive performance. The Diamondbacks have enjoyed a scoreline of 8-0 over the Padres in two consecutive games before their win against the Dodgers, indicating substantial offensive efficiency combined with defensive solidity.
Does the price match the form?
The market currently offers the Los Angeles Dodgers at $1.39, which translates to an implied probability of 71.9%, while the Arizona Diamondbacks are priced at $3.45, reflecting a 29% implied probability. The total market percentage stands at 100.9%, indicating the bookmaker's margin.
Comparing these implied probabilities with the recent performances reveals an interesting dynamic. Despite a recent loss to the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers have a stronger overall record and a higher scoring average. However, the Diamondbacks' recent success against them raises questions about whether the market's view aligns consistently with the latest performances: Can the Dodgers overcome the momentum shift seen in their last matchup, or do the Diamondbacks maintain their advantage?
Where to look in the markets
Considering the combined scoring average of approximately 13 points if both teams hit their season numbers, it would be prudent to examine the totals over/under market. This combined score could provide insights into the expected output relative to the bookmakers’ posted lines. Additionally, with the Dodgers allowing an average of 6.4 points per game, examining the margin markets may yield valuable information, especially after their clear defensive lapses. Player prop bets relating to scoring, given both teams’ offensive capabilities, could also be explored based on their recent scoring trends.
Before you bet, check
- Have you verified the latest team lists and injury reports before placing a bet?
- What are the anticipated weather conditions for the outdoor venue?
- Are you aware of the travel and turnaround time for the Diamondbacks?
- Have you checked any last-minute information on pitching rotations for the upcoming game?
Staking this game
With the Dodgers priced at $1.39, a 72% strike rate is necessary just to break even. Therefore, implementing a disciplined staking strategy with 1-2% flat staking of your bankroll can help you withstand the potential losing runs that even the strongest favourites can face.