BASEBALL · MLB
Colorado RockiesvSeattle Mariners
Best-of-market odds · combined margin ~0.5%. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
How it played out
The Colorado Rockies defeated the Seattle Mariners 5-3, resulting in a clear upset against the pre-game market, which had Seattle as the favourite with an implied probability of approximately 60%.
How our pre-game read held up
Our pre-game analysis suggested that the game could be competitive due to the recent inconsistent forms of both teams, but ultimately underestimated the Rockies' ability to capitalize, as they secured the win despite their poor record.
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
The Colorado Rockies come into this matchup with a record of 14 wins and 39 losses across 53 games, averaging 4.6 runs per game while allowing 6.2 runs against. Their recent form has been particularly poor, as they have lost four out of their last five games. Notably, they just lost a close contest to the Seattle Mariners on September 19, where they fell short by a single run, 4-5 at home. Prior to that, they also suffered defeats to the San Diego Padres, with scores of 3-9, 9-3 (win), 7-8, and 1-8, indicating both defensive and offensive inconsistencies.
On the other side, the Seattle Mariners have a similar record of 13 wins and 39 losses from 52 games, but they have a slightly lower scoring average of 3.8 runs for and 6.3 runs against. Recent performances have shown a mix of potential, as they beat the Rockies in their last encounter and also managed a significant victory against the Los Angeles Angels, winning 7-2. However, they suffered three consecutive losses to the Angels in the previous games before that victory. This season, the head-to-head record between these teams leans slightly in favour of the Mariners, with five wins against four for the Rockies, including their latest encounter.
Does the price match the form?
The current market presents the Colorado Rockies at $2.36, reflecting an implied probability of 42.4%, while the Seattle Mariners are favoured at $1.67, which translates to a 59.9% implied probability. The combined market total of 102.3% indicates a slight bookmaker margin. When considering the Rockies' poor overall record and their recent struggles, especially in close games, it raises the question: does the market adequately reflect their consistency problems and the Mariners’ recent upturn in form, particularly given the Mariners’ performance against them just one day prior?
Where to look in the markets
Given the combined scoring average of both teams so far this season is approximately 8 runs per game, examining the totals over/under market could be beneficial. Bettors should compare this average against the posted line to gauge potential value in betting on higher or lower totals. Additionally, the head-to-head market remains compelling, particularly considering that the Mariners have edged the Rockies recently. Potential player or competitor props may also warrant examination, especially focusing on run production from the teams' recent performances, such as the Rockies’ outburst of 9 runs against the Padres just prior to facing the Mariners.
Before you bet, check
- What is the current injury list for both teams, and are any key players sidelined?
- What are the projected weather conditions for the game day, particularly for outdoor venues?
- Are there any travel concerns, especially for the Mariners after a lengthy road series?
- How are each team's lineups shaping up in terms of performance and fatigue heading into this game?
Staking this game
With the shortest price in the market at $1.67, a 60% strike rate is necessary just to break even. Therefore, employing a disciplined approach with 1-2% flat staking can help manage the inevitable losing runs that may occur, even for seemingly strong favourites like the Mariners.