BASEBALL · MLB
Milwaukee BrewersvPittsburgh Pirates
Best-of-market odds · market total 100.4% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
Writing a quick retrospective on how the market read this one…
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
The Milwaukee Brewers enter this matchup with a record of 16 wins and 10 losses from 26 games, averaging 4.2 runs for and 3.4 runs against per game. Recently, they have struggled, losing their last three games to the Pittsburgh Pirates by identical scores of 3-4 on August 3rd, 4th, and 5th, all at home. A concerning trend for the Brewers is their recent inability to close out games, with each loss against the Pirates marking a narrow defeat.
The Pittsburgh Pirates, meanwhile, have an overall record of 15 wins and 15 losses, and they have averaged a slightly higher scoring output of 5.3 runs for and 4.8 runs against. Their recent form has seen them achieve back-to-back victories against the Brewers, winning the last three encounters all by a one-run margin. Over their last five games, they have won three against the Brewers, indicating a solid grasp of the pitching and batting matchups involved. The historical head-to-head results further emphasize the Pirates' dominance over the Brewers in recent matchups, winning four of the last five games played this season.
Does the price match the form?
The current market presents the Milwaukee Brewers at $1.74, which carries an implied probability of 57.5%, while the Pittsburgh Pirates are listed at $2.15 with an implied probability of 46.5%. The combined market total stands at 104.0%, incorporating a 4% bookmaker margin. Given the recent head-to-head outcomes where the Pirates have beaten the Brewers three consecutive times, does the market appropriately reflect the Brewers' recent struggles against a team that has averaged more points per game this season? Is the implied probability enough to account for the Brewers' recent home losses and the Pirates' upsurge in performance?
Where to look in the markets
In this matchup, two specific markets warrant attention based on the provided data: head-to-head and totals over/under. First, analyze the head-to-head market by considering how the Brewers have fared against the Pirates recently; with Pittsburgh winning all last three encounters by a slim margin, the price for the Brewers may not accurately reflect this trend. Second, with a combined scoring average of approximately 10 points if both teams hit their season averages, explore the over/under totals market carefully. Compare this average against the bookmaker's posted line to determine potential value depending on how each team's scoring behaves on the day.
Before you bet, check
- What is the latest news on team rosters and any player injuries for both clubs?
- What is the weather forecast for the venue, particularly if it is outdoors?
- How does travel and turnaround impact the performance of the Pirates, especially following multiple away games?
- What are the pitching matchups, and are there any relevant trends that might affect the game?
Staking this game
With the Brewers priced at $1.74, they require a 57% strike rate to break even. Given the volatility inherent in betting, particularly with a favourite like the Brewers who have shown recent inconsistency, it's advisable to consider a disciplined approach of flat staking at 1-2% of your bankroll. This strategy helps you endure the inevitable losing runs while capitalizing on stronger prospects when they arise.