BASEBALL · MLB
Los Angeles DodgersvSt. Louis Cardinals
Best-of-market odds · market total 100% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
How it played out
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 13 to 8, marking an upset against the pre-game market. The Dodgers were favored with an implied probability of approximately 65%, yet they were unable to secure a victory.
How our pre-game read held up
The pre-game analysis suggested that the Dodgers had been struggling to close out games and highlighted their mixed form. This accurately reflected the outcome, as they failed to perform against the Cardinals, who had been showing better offensive capabilities in their recent matchups.
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
The Los Angeles Dodgers enter this matchup with a record of 16 wins and 17 losses over 33 games, averaging 4.9 points for and 5.0 against. Their recent form shows mixed results, highlighted by their last five games where they secured a decisive 6-1 win against the Detroit Tigers. However, prior to that, they faced struggles against the same team, losing on two occasions, as well as a defeat against the Atlanta Braves. Notably, the Dodgers have been having a tough time closing out games, losing several close encounters as shown in the last few outings.
On the other hand, the St. Louis Cardinals present a 19-27 record from 46 games, with a scoring average of 4.3 points for and 4.2 against. Their last five games reflect a slightly better winning margin, as they managed to secure victories against the Pittsburgh Pirates on two occasions. Despite a recent 4-5 loss to the Pirates in their last game, they previously showcased their offensive abilities with a 7-5 win against the Baltimore Orioles. Both teams are averaging around 9 combined points in their games, indicating a tendency for high-scoring matches when they face off.
Does the price match the form?
The current market odds provide the following implied probabilities: Los Angeles Dodgers at $1.55, which translates to a 64.5% implied probability, and St. Louis Cardinals at $2.82, with a 35.5% implied probability. The combined total is 100.0%, indicating there is minimal margin applied by bookmakers in this instance.
When comparing the market's perception of the Dodgers as the favourite against their recent performance, questions arise. With a record barely above .500, does the 64.5% implied probability align with their close games and recent defeats? Moreover, can the Cardinals, despite their struggles, leverage the Dodgers' inconsistencies to challenge that implied probability? Investigating these aspects could provide deeper insights into the match's potential outcome.
Where to look in the markets
- Head-to-Head: The Dodgers' inconsistency may fuel an exploration of this market, especially since they are highly favoured.
- Totals Over/Under: With both teams averaging about 9 total points, it would be prudent to compare this average against the bookmakers' posted line.
- Player Props: Consider looking into individual performances in light of recent scoring trends, especially given the Cardinals' ability to secure runs against weaker pitching.
Before you bet, check
- What are the latest team lists, and are there any key injuries affecting player availability?
- What are the weather conditions for the game, particularly if it is played outdoors?
- Have there been any significant travel implications for either team coming into this matchup?
- What is the pitcher's form, and how might it affect team dynamics in this game?
Staking this game
Given that the best price for the Dodgers is $1.55, a 65% strike rate is necessary just to break even. Adopting a disciplined approach with 1-2% flat staking could help manage bankroll effectively, especially during the natural losing streaks that can occur with even the strongest teams. Maintaining this level of discipline helps in navigating the volatility present in MLB betting.