BASEBALL · MLB
Cincinnati RedsvPhiladelphia Phillies
Best-of-market odds · market total 99.3% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
Writing a quick retrospective on how the market read this one…
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
The Cincinnati Reds enter this matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies with a troubling record of 0 wins and 7 losses from their last seven games. During this stretch, they've averaged only 1.4 points per game while conceding an alarming 4.0 points. Their most recent performance was a loss to the Phillies on July 7, where they fell 1-4. In fact, the Reds struggled offensively against the Baltimore Orioles as well, suffering three consecutive 0-3 losses prior to facing Philadelphia, and a narrow 3-5 defeat against the Milwaukee Brewers before that.
In contrast, the Philadelphia Phillies are in strong form, boasting a 4 wins and 2 losses record over their last six games. Averaging 6.3 points per game while allowing 4.2 points, they notably achieved a commanding 8-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates just days before defeating the Reds. Their recent win over Cincinnati on July 7 was part of a four-game winning streak against Kansas City Royals, indicating a significant offensive capability as they have surpassed 6 points in multiple games recently.
Does the price match the form?
The current market prices present the Cincinnati Reds at $1.83, which translates to an implied probability of 54.6%. The Philadelphia Phillies are listed at $2.24, with an implied probability of 44.6%. The combined market total stands at 99.3%, indicating a very tight range likely due to competitive pricing from Australian bookmakers.
Assessing these implied probabilities against the performance data reveals some tension. The Reds’ poor recent form, highlighted by seven consecutive losses, suggests they may not warrant a favourite's price, yet they are positioned as the home team. Does the market’s view of the Reds as slight favourites hold, considering their offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities? Alternatively, do the Phillies’ recent strong performances inspire confidence in their current price?
Where to look in the markets
In the context of this matchup, bettors should consider exploring the following markets:
- Head-to-Head: Despite their struggles, the Reds are favoured, and their recent home disadvantages warrant consideration when viewing match odds.
- Totals Over/Under: The combined scoring average of around 8 total points is a pertinent reference when comparing the bookmaker's posted line, particularly given the Reds' recent offensive troubles.
- Player Props/Competitor Props: With the Phillies scoring 6.3 points per game against the Reds’ struggling pitching, examining player props, especially for Phillies hitters, could yield insights into scoring potential.
Before you bet, check
- What are the latest team selections and potential injuries for both teams?
- What is the weather forecast for the venue on game day?
- What is the travel distance and turnaround time for the Phillies on the day of the game?
- Are there any recent changes in team management or coaching that could impact performance?
Staking this game
With the Reds priced at $1.83, achieving a 55% strike rate is essential just to break even. A disciplined approach of 1-2% flat staking can help navigate the inevitable losing streaks that even the strongest contenders may face.