AFL · AFL Premiership · Round 24
EssendonvPort Adelaide
Best-of-market odds · market total 100.3% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
Writing a quick retrospective on how the market read this one…
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
Essendon enters this Round 24 clash with a disappointing season record of 2 wins and 20 losses. They have struggled significantly, averaging 68.5 points for and 103.5 against across their 22 games. Their recent form is particularly concerning, highlighted by their last five results where they lost every match, including a 76-112 defeat to Sydney in Round 23 and a 50-117 loss to Geelong the week prior. The only win in this stretch was a narrow 67-64 victory over Greater Western Sydney in Round 19, indicating a troubling trend of defensive collapses.
Port Adelaide has also faced challenges this season, finishing Round 22 with 6 wins and 16 losses. Their offensive average of 77.0 points against a defensive average of 86.7 indicates that they too have had issues, but their recent results reflect a more competitive edge. Despite a 56-127 loss to Melbourne in Round 23 and a string of defeats, they managed to keep matches closer than Essendon, such as their 63-75 loss to Greater Western Sydney. Notably, Port Adelaide dominated the head-to-head match earlier this season, defeating Essendon decisively by a score of 127 to 70 in Round 2.
Does the price match the form?
The current market shows Essendon at $2.10 with an implied probability of 47.6% and Port Adelaide at $1.90 with an implied probability of 52.6%. The total market percentage is 100.3%, indicating competitive pricing across bookmakers. When we compare these odds to the recent form, the bookmakers appear to lean slightly in favour of Port Adelaide. This is reflected in their victory earlier in the season against Essendon and overall better scoring average. Is the market’s expectation that Port Adelaide will secure a win justified by their current form and past performance against Essendon, or is there an argument to support Essendon pulling off an upset at home?
Where to look in the markets
The head-to-head market is immediately relevant given the clear divide in season records and the previous encounter, where Port Adelaide secured a significant victory against Essendon. Additionally, the total points over/under market is an area of interest; with a combined scoring average of approximately 146 points when both teams hit their season averages, attention should be paid to where the posted line sits against this number. Furthermore, the line betting market deserves scrutiny; considering both teams’ scoring struggles, there may be value in the margin markets if a defensive approach is anticipated.
Before you bet, check
- What are the latest team selections for both clubs, and are there any last-minute injuries to key players?
- What is the weather forecast in Docklands, and could it impact scoring or player performance?
- How have both teams fared in terms of travel fatigue, particularly noting that Port Adelaide is the travelling side?
- Are there any significant recent changes within either team’s coaching or strategy that might influence the outcome?
Staking this game
Given the shortest price in the market is $1.90 and requires a 53% strike rate to break even, it is critical to maintain discipline in staking. A flat staking approach of 1-2% of your bankroll is recommended, allowing one to withstand potential losing streaks which can occur even with perceived strong favourites.