AFL · AFL Premiership · Round 24
CollingwoodvBrisbane Lions
Best-of-market odds when this analysis was generated · market total 99.7% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
The matchup
The upcoming contest at the M.C.G. features Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions, with Collingwood holding a record of 12 wins, 8 losses, and 2 draws after 22 games this season. They average 87.0 points for and 82.5 against, indicating a neutral scoring power but a slight vulnerability in their defense. Their recent form has been mixed, culminating in a draw against Hawthorn (92-92) in Round 23 and a solid victory against West Coast (117-98) the week prior. However, they're also coming off a heavy home loss to Geelong (72-97), highlighting some inconsistency.
On the other hand, the Brisbane Lions have impressed this season with a record of 15 wins and 7 losses, averaging 104.6 points for and 86.0 against. Their last five games showcase a strong scoring ability, including a decisive win over Hawthorn (125-58) and a victory against Port Adelaide (126-67). The Lions are currently firing on all cylinders, having only lost one of their last five games. Additionally, their previous head-to-head match this season was a dominating performance, where Brisbane defeated Collingwood 119-65 in Round 4, further establishing a psychological edge.
Does the price match the form?
The current market odds state that Collingwood is priced at $3.75, which translates to an implied probability of 26.7%, while the Brisbane Lions are at $1.37, equating to a 73.0% implied probability. The market total stands at 99.7%, reflecting the high level of confidence in the Lions. Upon reviewing the DATA, one could question whether the tight win expectation aligns with Collingwood’s recent performances, especially considering their significant loss to Brisbane earlier this season. Does Collingwood's recent form support their long odds, or is the market underestimating their potential for an upset at home?
Where to look in the markets
Punters should focus on the total points over/under market given the combined scoring average of approximately 192 total points if both teams perform to their seasons' averages. Compare this number against the bookmaker's posted line to assess value. Additionally, the line betting market may be insightful, particularly in light of Collingwood's defensive struggles evident from their recent high-scoring games and their tendency to concede more points at home. Moreover, anytime goal scorer prop bets could be of interest, especially considering Brisbane's scoring consistency and the number of goals they have registered across their recent winning streak.
Before you bet, check
- What is the current injury status for both teams?
- Have there been any late changes to the team line-ups that could impact performance?
- What is the weather forecast on the day of the match, and how could it affect play?
- Can you confirm the travel conditions and turnaround time for Brisbane's away fixture?
Staking this game
With the shortest price in the market at $1.37, this requires a 73% strike rate just to break even, which can be challenging. Adopting a 1-2% flat staking strategy can help manage bankroll during inevitable losing periods, especially in a matchup with a strong favourite like the Lions.