AFL · AFL Premiership · Round 23
RichmondvSt Kilda
Best-of-market odds · market total 99.4% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
Writing a quick retrospective on how the market read this one…
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
Richmond faces St Kilda at the M.C.G. with contrasting seasons reflected in their records. Richmond currently sits at 3 wins and 18 losses from 21 games, averaging 64.9 points scored while conceding 99.8 points per match. Recent form further highlights their struggles, having lost four of their last five games. Notably, their latest encounter saw them fall to Adelaide 54-63 in Round 22, and their last home match ended with a 48-105 defeat against the Western Bulldogs in Round 20. In stark contrast, St Kilda holds a record of 9 wins and 12 losses, averaging 87.6 points for and 87.0 against. Despite losing their last two matches, including a significant defeat against Carlton (62-106) in Round 22, their overall defensive metrics appear more stable than Richmond's.
The previous head-to-head matchup in Round 10 this season saw St Kilda claim a convincing 109-73 victory over Richmond, emphasizing their dominance in that matchup. While Richmond's scoring struggles have left them vulnerable, St Kilda's slightly better performance metrics paint a somewhat brighter picture. However, their recent form—especially following their losses—raises questions about their consistency entering this match.
Does the price match the form?
The current market prices for the match show Richmond at $3.95, translating to a 25.3% implied probability of winning, while St Kilda is at $1.35, reflecting a 74.1% implied probability. The total market percentage stands at 99.4%, indicating an efficient market with minimal margins. Examining these odds against their recent performances, St Kilda's form and season averages support their status as favourited, but Richmond’s price may also indicate a lack of confidence in St Kilda’s ability to maintain performance given their recent losses. Is the market correctly accounting for Richmond’s struggles versus the fact that St Kilda has not been performing to their potential recently either?
Where to look in the markets
Considering the teams' styles and the scoring averages, the total points over/under market merits close scrutiny. Richmond's average of 64.9 points per game and St Kilda's average of 87.6 render a combined scoring average of about 152 total points, which should be compared against the bookmakers' posted line. Additionally, the defensive lapses shown by Richmond in recent games suggest an examination of line betting markets could be fruitful, especially if a sizable handicap is offered. Margins could also be insightful here, given St Kilda’s recent dominant head-to-head performance and their ability to score significantly against Richmond.
Before you bet, check
- What are the confirmed team lists for both Richmond and St Kilda?
- Are there any injury updates that could impact either team's performance?
- What is the expected weather condition for the M.C.G. on match day?
- How far has St Kilda travelled compared to Richmond, and what is their turnaround time?
Staking this game
The shortest price in the market is $1.35, requiring a 74% strike rate just to break even. Employing a 1-2% flat staking approach is advisable to mitigate risk and navigate the inevitable losing runs that even strong favourites like St Kilda can encounter.