AFL · AFL Premiership · Round 20
HawthornvEssendon
Best-of-market odds · market total 100.2% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
Writing a quick retrospective on how the market read this one…
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
Hawthorn enters this Round 20 clash with a remarkable record of 12 wins, 5 losses, and 1 draw from their 18 matches this season. They have been particularly strong offensively, averaging 97.4 points per game, while conceding 83.2 points on average. Recent form shows them on a positive trajectory, having won four of their last five matches, including substantial victories against Richmond (122-52) and Carlton (103-39). This form indicates not only their offensive capacity but also suggests improvements in their defensive structures, aside from one slip-up against Melbourne (90-125) at home.
In stark contrast, Essendon has struggled this season, with only 2 wins and 16 losses from 18 games. Their average of 70.4 points for and 99.7 points against highlights significant issues both in scoring and maintaining a robust defense. Their recent form is discouraging, having lost four consecutive matches, including a heavy defeat to Brisbane (59-127) and St Kilda (50-117). When the two teams met earlier this season, Hawthorn handily defeated Essendon 127-83, which further emphasizes the current disparity between these sides.
Does the price match the form?
The current market presents Hawthorn at a price of $1.03 with an implied probability of 97.1%, while Essendon sits at $32.00, translating to an implied probability of 3.1%. The market total is 100.2%, indicating a competitive pricing structure. Given Hawthorn's strong record and recent performances, their standing as favorites aligns with their impressive results. However, given Essendon's significant struggles this season, one might question whether the considerable gap in odds sufficiently reflects their potential for an upset, especially considering the nature of their last head-to-head battle.
Where to look in the markets
Market participants would be well advised to consider multiple avenues for investment based on the data provided. The total points over/under market could be particularly interesting; with a combined scoring average of approximately 168 points when factoring each team's season averages, it presents a benchmark against which to compare posted lines. Additionally, the line betting market should be scrutinized, given Hawthorn's high scoring and Essendon's difficulties in containing opposing teams. A look into margin betting brackets may also provide value, especially after Hawthorn's domination in their earlier encounter this season.
Before you bet, check
- What is the status of player injuries and team selections for both sides?
- How might weather conditions impact the game at the M.C.G.?
- What is the travel arrangement and turnaround period for Essendon?
- Are there any recent changes in coaching or strategies that could influence team performance?
Staking this game
With Hawthorn's lowest market price at $1.03 implying a required 97% strike rate to break even, a disciplined staking strategy is essential. Adopting a flat staking approach of 1-2% of your bankroll is advisable to manage the inherent risks and volatility, particularly when dealing with high-priced favorites like Hawthorn.