Port AdelaidevFremantle

The matchup

Port Adelaide comes into this match with a record of 6 wins and 11 losses from their 17 games in the 2026 season, averaging 80.1 points for and 79.4 against. Their recent form shows a mixed bag, with the last five matches yielding two wins and three losses. Notably, their last game ended in a loss to St Kilda, where they scored 73 points but conceded 87. Consistency has eluded Port this season, highlighted by their recent defeat against Collingwood, where they could only manage 51 points while allowing 78.

In contrast, Fremantle boasts an impressive 15 wins and just 2 losses from 17 games, averaging 97.8 points for and 69.9 against. Their latest outing saw them claim a convincing 111-73 win over Sydney in Round 18. Recent results feature four victories in their last five matches, with their only loss during this stretch being a high-scoring defeat to Greater Western Sydney. This form suggests a well-rounded team capable of both outscoring opponents significantly and maintaining strong defensive performances.

Does the price match the form?

The current market prices indicate Port Adelaide at $11.00, equating to a 9.1% implied probability of winning, while Fremantle sits at $1.09, representing a 91.7% implied probability. The combined market total stands at 100.8%, indicating a bookmaker margin of 0.8%. Comparing these numbers to the recent match results reveals a disparity: Fremantle's dominant record and consistent scoring far outweigh Port's performances. Is the market's confidence in Fremantle justified by their recent form, or does Port Adelaide's home ground advantage suggest a possibility for an upset?

Where to look in the markets

• The total points market is particularly relevant here. Both teams' combined scoring average suggests a total close to 178 points; examining the bookmaker’s posted line against this average may reveal opportunities given both teams' scoring capabilities.