AFL · AFL Premiership · Round 17
West CoastvAdelaide
Best-of-market odds · market total 100.2% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
Writing a quick retrospective on how the market read this one…
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
West Coast enters this Round 17 clash with a record of 4 wins and 11 losses from 15 games, averaging 72.5 points for and conceding 97.9 points against. Their recent form has seen them struggle, losing four of their last five games, including a significant defeat to Carlton where they scored just 64 points to Carlton's 117. Their sole victory in this stretch came against Essendon, where they managed 85 points but were otherwise unable to break the 80-point mark against other teams.
In contrast, Adelaide boasts a stronger record of 9 wins and 6 losses, with an average of 88.1 points for and 80.5 against. Their recent performances have been notably mixed; they beat Melbourne (79-62) and Western Bulldogs (121-64), but they faltered against Port Adelaide (71-97) last week. The scoring averages suggest that if both teams perform to their season averages, about 161 points could be scored, creating a notable gap in offensive capabilities between Adelaide and West Coast.
Does the price match the form?
The current market odds offer West Coast at $5.70 with an implied probability of 17.5% and Adelaide at $1.21 with an implied probability of 82.6%. The total of these implied probabilities is 100.2%, indicating that this pricing reflects competitive betting. However, examining this against West Coast's recent form raises questions about the adequacy of their 17.5% implied chance.
Given West Coast’s average points scored (72.5) compared to Adelaide's (88.1), can West Coast indeed pull off the upset suggested by their odds? Further inquiries into how recent matchups between these teams may sway public perception and betting trends could yield valuable insights.
Where to look in the markets
Considering the offensive scoring averages and the defensive weaknesses shown in West Coast’s past performances, the total points over/under market is particularly relevant. The combined scoring average of 161 points serves as a benchmark for assessing whether the posted total could be a target for overs. Additionally, West Coast's struggles defensively may invite examination of the line betting (handicap), especially if going against Adelaide's strong scoring capabilities. Look into margin betting brackets, given the potential disparity in performance, and how close or blowout scenarios could unfold based on historical trends.
Before you bet, check
- What are the current team lists and injury updates for both West Coast and Adelaide?
- Is there any inclement weather expected for this match at Perth Stadium?
- What is the travel schedule like for Adelaide, and how might it affect performance?
- What are the historical results of recent encounters between these two teams?
Staking this game
With Adelaide priced at $1.21, a successful strike rate of approximately 83% is required just to break even. Implementing a disciplined staking strategy of 1-2% flat stakes can mitigate the impacts of losing streaks, a necessary measure even when supporting strong favourites like Adelaide.