AFL · AFL Premiership · Round 17
EssendonvSt Kilda
Best-of-market odds · market total 98.8% — shopping the best price at each bookmaker shrinks or removes the usual margin. Prices move constantly — check current markets.
After the match
Writing a quick retrospective on how the market read this one…
BetWiser's pre-game analysis (published before the event)
The matchup
Essendon enters Round 17 with a dismal record of 1 win and 14 losses from 15 games. Their average score stands at 72.8 points for and 99.1 against, reflecting a significant defensive weakness. In their last five matches, they have struggled, with scores of 65 against North Melbourne, 50 against Melbourne, and narrow home losses to Carlton and Richmond. Their most notable defeat was an away loss to West Coast, where they only managed 55 points while conceding 85.
On the other hand, St Kilda holds a record of 6 wins and 9 losses, averaging 87.9 points for and 88.4 points against. Their recent form shows two contrasting performances: a solid win against Greater Western Sydney, scoring 96 points, and a blowout loss at home to Hawthorn, where they conceded 119 points. Considering these results, the potential for scoring is present, but both teams have shown vulnerabilities on the defensive end.
Does the price match the form?
The current betting market offers the following implied probabilities: Essendon at $5.50, implying an 18.2% chance of winning, and St Kilda at $1.24, implying an 80.6% chance. The total market probability stands at 98.8%. Given Essendon's poor record and recent performances, St Kilda’s odds seem reflective of their greater overall success this season. However, are Essendon’s struggles sufficiently captured by this price? Is there room for potential value in the margins or in individual performance betting given the historical context of close losses for Essendon?
Where to look in the markets
Focusing on the total points market is critical, especially with a combined scoring average of about 161 total points if both teams meet their season averages. Bettors should compare this figure with the bookmaker's posted line to identify any potential discrepancies. Additionally, the line betting markets could offer insights, particularly if considering how Essendon's defensive frailties may impact the final score, especially against a St Kilda side that has experienced both high and low scoring games. Lastly, given Essendon's recent struggles in front of goal, examining any player disposal or goal props might provide interesting angles for analysis regarding individual contributions.
Before you bet, check
- What is the latest team list, and are there significant injuries impacting either squad?
- What are the weather conditions expected at Docklands for this match?
- Is there any significant travel or turnaround time affecting St Kilda as the away team?
- What strategies have both coaches indicated they might employ for this game?
- How have these teams historically performed against each other in similar circumstances?
Staking this game
With St Kilda's best price at $1.24 requiring an 81% strike rate just to break even, it's crucial to approach betting with discipline. Emphasizing a flat stake of 1-2% allows bettors to manage through inevitable losing runs, even when backing strong favorites such as St Kilda.